November 2003 might go down in history as the month that Google
shook a lot of smug webmasters and search engine optimization
(SEO) specialists from the apple tree. But more than likely, it
was just a precursor of the BIG shakeup to come.

Google touts highly its secret PageRank algorithm. Although
PageRank is just one factor in choosing what sites appear on a
specific search, it is the main way that Google determines the
"importance" of a website.

In recent months, SEO specialists have become expert at
manipulating PageRank, particularly through link exchanges.

There is nothing wrong with links. They make the Web a web
rather than a series of isolated islands. However, PageRank
relies on the naturally "democratic" nature of the web, whereby
webmasters link to sites they feel are important for their
visitors. Google rightly sees link exchanges designed to boost
PageRank as stuffing the ballot box.

I was not surprised to see Google try to counter all the SEO
efforts. In fact, I have been arguing the case with many non-
believing SEO specialists over the past couple months. But I was
surprised to see the clumsy way in which Google chose to do it.

Google targeted specific search terms, including many of the most
competitive and commercial terms. Many websites lost top
positions in five or six terms, but maintain their positions in
several others. This had never happened before. Give credit to
Barry Lloyd of www.SearchEngineGuide.com for cleverly uncovering
the process.

For Google, this shakeup is just a temporary fix. It will have
to make much bigger changes if it is serious about harnessing the
"democratic" nature of the Web and neutralizing the artificial
results of so many link exchanges.

Here are a few techniques Google might use (remember to think
like a search engine):

1. Google might start valuing inbound links within paragraphs
much higher than links that stand on their own. (For all we
know, Google is already doing this.) Such links are much less
likely to be the product of a link exchange, and therefore more
likely to be genuine "democratic" votes.

2. Google might look at the concentration of inbound links across
a website. If most inbound links point to the home page, that is
another possible indicator of a link exchange, or at least that
the site's content is not important enough to draw inbound links
(and it is content that Google wants to deliver to its
searchers).

3. Google might take a sample of inbound links to a domain, and
check to see how many are reciprocated back to the linking
domains. If a high percentage are reciprocated, Google might
reduce the site's PageRank accordingly. Or it might set a cut-
point, dropping from its index any website with too many of its
inbound links reciprocated.

4. Google might start valuing outbound links more highly. Two
pages with 100 inbound links are, in theory, valued equally, even
if one has 20 outbound links and the other has none. But why
should Google send its searchers down a dead-end street, when the
information highway is paved just as smoothly on a major
thoroughfare?

5. Google might weigh a website's outbound link concentration. A
website with most outbound links concentrated on just a few pages
is more likely to be a "link-exchanger" than a site with links
spread out across its pages.

Google might use a combination of these techniques and ones not
mentioned here. We cannot predict the exact algorithm, nor can
we assume that it will remain constant. What we can do is to
prepare our websites to look and act like a website would on a
"democratic" Web as Google would see it.

For Google to hold its own against upstart search engines, it
must deliver on its PageRank promise. Its results reflect the
"democratic" nature of the Web. Its algorithm must prod
webmasters to give links on their own merit. That won't be easy
or even completely possible. And people will always find ways to
turn Google's algorithm to their advantage. But the techniques
above can send the Internet a long way back to where Google
promises it will be.

The time is now to start preparing your website for the changes
to come.

--

David Leonhardt is an online and offline publicity specialist who
believes in getting in front of the ball, rather than chasing it
downhill. To get your website optimized, email him at href=mailto:info@thehappyguy.com>info@thehappyguy.com. Pick
up a copy of Don't Get
Banned By The Search Engines or of
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